Another failed January window? It depends how you look at it
Thanks to David Moyes, Everton's outlook for the remainder of the season has changed significantly since the day he was appointed but the Club will be riding its luck where the centre-forward position is concerned and it could end up costing them financially anyway
On the one hand, it looks very much as though Everton owe a sizeable debt of gratitude to David Moyes for the three successive victories that massively relieved the pressure on both the recruitment team and the new ownership to first find and then spend the money to acquire players capable of keeping the Toffees in the Premier League this season.
The wins over Tottenham, Brighton and Leicester, which lifted Everton nine points of a relegation zone that was just one point below when he took over three weeks ago, transformed the Club’s outlook for the remainder of the season. No one will be getting too comfortable but it’s 14 years since 40 points was needed to stay in the division and, in any event, Moyes’s team would need to fall below an average of a point per game to miss that threshold in their remaining 15 fixtures.
Add in the fact that Ipswich and Southampton still have to come to Goodison Park this season, that the three promoted clubs have four wins between them over the last 10 games and it’s clear that it would take a spectacular collapse from the Blues to get relegated this year. That must have entered the thinking as director of football, Kevin Thelwell, surveyed the landscape over the final days of the transfer window with his hands tied somewhat by profitability and sustainability rules (PSR).
The £63m losses the Club incurred in the 2022/23 season, the earliest of the three-year accounting cycle for PSR, will dog Everton until the 30th of June and they are believed to have restricted Thelwell’s budget to around £15m this month. That could potentially stretch to three new modestly-priced players with a £5m down payment on each but January is a notoriously difficult month in which to do business at all, let alone find bargains in the one position most clubs are always looking to strengthen: striker.
On the other hand, Everton’s need for cover at centre-forward is pretty acute. As things stand, Beto is the only fit, senior striker on the club’s books and his potential stand-in, Youssef Chermiti, is still around three weeks away from being fit and has a solitary Premier League start to his name. Armando Broja and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, while thought to have sustained less-serious injuries than first feared, might not be available again until April. An injury to the more senior Portuguese forward would leave Moyes without a first-team striker at all.
However, despite being short of wide options as well, the 61-year-old boss will feel as though he could make do. Iliman Ndiaye can operate up front, as can new recruit, Charly Alcaraz and, at a push, either of Jack Harrison or Jesper Lindstrom could operate as “false nines”. It’s a good thing that Moyes has got Everton playing the ball effectively on the deck because under his predecessor, such an injury crisis might have been terminal.
Realistically speaking though, Moyes is going to need luck where Beto’s fitness is concerned because the afore-mentioned contingencies are far from ideal. Where the short term is concerned and in the context of the question, “are we stronger or weaker than when the window began?” the answer would have to be the latter and it’s for that reason that this must be regarded as a poor window from Everton’s perspective.
And in terms of the team’s prospects of climbing the table between now and the 25th of May, it could prove costly if injuries continue to bite. Sitting just five points behind 11th-place Brentford and eight behind 10th-place Brighton, the manager will feel that on the basis of his early results since succeeding Sean Dyche, a top-half finish isn’t out of the question. If he could achieve that, it would be worth around £15m in additional prize money; in the modern top flight, it pays to do more than simply beat the drop.
Let's also not forget the FA Cup. Victory over Bournemouth at Goodison Park on Saturday would put Everton two games away from Wembley and with the passage of every round, the prospect of a dream end to what has been another mostly miserable season doesn't seem all that ridiculous.
Not knowing who was on Thelwell’s list of targets and how much more favourable the terms might be to land them in the summer, it’s hard to make a judgement either way. It will, of course, be disappointing if results over the remainder of the campaign suffer because of a failure to add to key areas of the squad or a shortage of firepower cost us a shot at a deep cup run. But if Moyes can continue to navigate a path forward with the small complement at his disposal, Everton will be in a strong position come the summer.
By keeping the powder dry until then, it would allow the Club to go for key targets in June — i.e. before the financial year ends — perhaps with the added bonus of some more commercial deals being signed in the interim.
At the same time, what it does, of course, is ramp up the pressure on Thelwell — or whoever else might be sitting in the director of football’s chair when the summer window opens — to deliver some significant signings to get the Friedkin era off to a proper start after a fairly inauspicious January.
In the meantime, Evertonians are going to have to exhibit more of a quality of which their club has demanded far too much in recent years: patience.
Reader Responses
Selected thoughts from readers04/02/2025 19:07:05
Given that we earned a point per game in Sean Dyche’s final six matches we should expect to achieve that level in the remainder of the season. I will be surprised though if we have enough quality or depth to climb into the top half of the table.
The planning for the summer will, we must hope, already be well progressed. The retention list, the possible signings, the probable signings, the potential outgoing and incoming loanees along with the obvious issue about who will be making these decisions will need to be sorted out well before the end of the season.
05/02/2025 00:12:42
Thank you Lyndon for not sugar coating this transfer window: it’s a disappointment for sure.
I’m happy we’ve signed Alcaraz on loan with a view to permanent but we’re reliant on luck now: plus Moyes has become a victim of his (incredible) success
Perhaps we’ll be lucky: them over the park never have Salah injured or VVD (apart from the obvious).
It feels like a quality right winger was a necessity and/or a forward. I get the whole PSR thing (obviously) and the intent to only sign value. But then is this a reflection of our scouting system? Bournemouth are made up of cheap signings as are Forest: the point being that players are out there & available for bargains.
I DID hear something about Dyche sacking eating up some of the budget. Dunno if that’s true or not but might explain it a bit.
However, it’s been disappointing. It’s rational and sensible but still very disappointing
10/02/2025 22:12:33
Ben, I reckon there's a strata of signings which is along these lines:
Below £20m
This is low cost. Chelsea are paying up to £20m for u21 / academy youngsters. Tier 3 Birmingham spent £15m on a striker this season. These days you're doing very well to find a player for under £20m who is capable of being a regular First XI player anywhere above the lower reaches of the Premier League.
This is where we do most of our business. In fact it's amazing just how many of our starting XI are sometimes under £5m (Young, Coleman, Branthwaite, Tarkowski, Gueye, DCL).
As I've said previously, in days gone by the likes of Howard, Neville, Pienaar etc etc would all cost over £20m now.
£20m to £40m
This is more where you're buying proper Premier League quality. We only have Beto, Pickford and Keane in the squad who cost this much - and Pickford and Keane were bought 8 years ago. Doucoure and Mykolenko only exceed 20m in Euros, not £.
To your point, Ben, Forest and Bournemouth have been doing good low cost business (albeit at a very high volume) but also much more business than us here. They've found value in the sub-£20m category but have been spending heavily too.
This is comparable to where Moyes was doing his business with us last time around. The likes of Lescott, Jagielka, Baines, Howard, Neville, Pienaar etc etc would all fall into this category now.
We have not been competing for this quality of player for many years.
£40m (+)
This is where you're moving into more obvious top 8 / top 6 quality.
We have bought only one player in this category in our entire history - Gylfi Sigurdsson in August 2017. Beattie, Johnson and Yakubu would all be £40m(+) acquisitions in todays market - potentially up to the c. £65m that Solanke (one good season after years of trying and pretty much no senior England recognition) cost Spurs.
Since then others have been spending in this zone too - from outside of the traditional big spenders - such as the likes of Villa (diaby, onana, maatsen) Spurs (ndombele, solanke, romero, sanchez, maddison, johnson, richarlison), Newcastle (isak, gordon, barnes, guimaraes, tonali, joelinton), West Ham (kilman, haller, paqueta, kudus), Brighton (rutter), Leicester (tielemans), Wolves (cunha, nunes)
We need to find low cost for the time being - and need to develop players too - but to ever get back into the top 8 / top 6 we need to start stocking up on this strata of player too. Hopefully the Friedkins can find a way.
11/02/2025 15:15:21
The window was certainly disappointing in terms of quantity. I was hoping for a striker and a full back. However I am pleased with the player we did sign. Although it is early days, he showed enough in his cameo appearance for me to regard him as an exiting recruit. He seemed to have qualities we have not seen in the team for some time. He drives forward with pace and strength, has good technique, passing and a strong shot. He may well lift the team tomorrow night. COYB.
11/02/2025 17:53:46
I think the Bournemouth cup game made look more realistically at where we are with this squad, we should still be alright at staying in the premier league but we are still in a fight to stay up.
The new signing looks like a good addition and was definitely needed, he can play in a few positions so that is an added bonus.
A point or three from the Liverpool game will also boost us for the fight to stay where we are.
13/02/2025 18:52:30
Maybe they knew something we didn't. PSR is to remain for next season.
Add Your Thoughts
Only registered users of Evertonia can participate in discussions.
Or Join as Evertonia Member — it takes just a few minutes and will allow you to post your thoughts on artices across the site.
04/02/2025 15:06:00
I think I'm in the camp of I'd rather we didn't compromise the future for the sake of the next few months. Obviously would have liked a couple more signings but I'm confident we won't go down. The summer is going to be tough though, I think we will need circa 9 players in. If we are going to replace Thelwell before then we need to do it soon so we have time for a proper plan.