The Case for Europe

A couple of posts in the Brentford match report showed that there is a concern that we may not yet be ready for European football. They got me thinking about what the concerns may be and about how, in my view, we are both better prepared for — and better off in — a European competition. 

I can understand the fear that the current squad is not prepared for the rigours of playing all those League, League Cup, FA Cup and European matches, especially during the first half of the season, when you are consistently playing two games a week. How do we keep pace with all competitions, how do we keep confidence high and injuries low? It's something we haven't had to think about for a number of seasons and we are obviously out of practice. 

Now, I understand that — and agree with — the idea that the Premier League has to be a priority and that this should come first. It's an absolute cash cow in terms of where you finish come May; we can't and shouldn't go back to the relegation battles and it's where a lot of the positive attention comes from in terms of the media and pundits. It's also what attracts players to clubs in England. The hype, the career trajectory, the wages. Having other competitions that will potentially detract from how we perform in the PL is an issue. 

You can point to Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace as examples of how Europe has impacted their PL performances this season, that they have not progressed given their successes last season. I do, however, think on closer inspection, it hasn't impacted as much as you'd think. 

Forest were a surprise package in terms of European qualification last season, similar to what we may well be this season but there's an argument to be had that an unpredictable owner sacking the manager who got them into Europe early in the season meant they weren't in a position to make the most of it.

Nevertheless, though they had spent huge sums in previous windows and were under pressure from PSR they still managed to spend big last summer on the likes of Jesus, Ndoye, Hutchison and McAtee thanks to the big-money sale of Elanga to Newcastle.

They were nicely set up at 1-1 going into the second leg of their Europa League tie and eventually progressed.

With Palace, again they were a surprise package with the FA Cup win. They then proceeded to sell three of their best players without replacing that talent properly. The manager who won the cup with them then voiced his concerns about this publically over the course of the season. Yet, they did finish 12th last season and are currently 13th this season. So, even with the extra games, they are still on par to be consistent with their league performances. And, with their Conference League quarter final poised at 1-1 going into the second leg, there was every chance of further progression. 

But, you can also look at Villa as an example of how you don't need huge investment or several years of mid-table solidity to sustain a run in both the league and Europe. They only got promoted back to the PL in 2019. They finished sixth last season. They now sit fourth in the PL and were 3-1 up going into the second leg of the Europa League quarter final which they won just as convincingly. 

If these three clubs can progress so far in Europe, without the PL performaces dropping off a cliff, then I don't think that we have to fear Europe at this point in time. 

Then we come to discussing the squad. While some may argue that the squad isn't ready for Europe, I would argue that the squad needs Europe. It suited our better players like James Garner, Iliman N'Diaye and Jarrad Branthwaite to sign for us when they did. They have improved the squad and improved individually as players during their time with us. They've also been very loyal through a couple of relegation battles. They've served their time, so to speak. 

Given that these players may soon be entering the final years of their contracts the question has to be asked as to why they should stay? They've put themselves in the shop window at Everton,  they are quality players who would improve most squads. Offering mid-table stability and a slight increase in wages isn't going to cut it. It's easier to ask them to stay if we can offer Europe next season. You helped to get us here, stay and enjoy what your efforts produced. 

Persuading key players of the squad to stay this summer is key to developing a quality squad. Likewise, asking PL ready players to sign for us this summer is an easier proposition if we have European football to offer them. Adding quality to quality, rather than just replacing it, is always a challenge. The more incentives there are for players, the easier it will be. 

Also, I do think that if Villa's and Forest's squads can progress in the Europa League, and Palace's squad can progress in the Conference League, then why can't our existing squad progress? Forest and Palace's squad aren't any higher in quality than ours. Like our squad, they had no previous experience of playing in Europe. Yet, without increasing the quality in the last two transfer windows, they have done well and their squads will be the better for it come season's end. 

In terms of asking our squad to perform in Europe next season, I do understand that their is a huge gulf in standard between each competition. While the CL is attractive in terms of revenue streams, it's pot luck in terms of what teams you draw in the new group stage format. We may do alright and build some momentum. We may also get a tough draw and be hammered in every game. Confidence and momentum would drop and this is what I would be worried about in terms of the rest of the season and the PL. As strange as it sounds, a part of me would be more comfortable with the Europa or Conference League. 

In terms of the club as a whole, I do think that it also needs Europe. Formost for me right now is our reputation. For a number of years our relevance was as a big club in decline. Then it was as club with history fighting relegation battles. Then it was a club fighting the PL, financial battles and PSR rules. This season we have been relevant as a club rising from the ashes, finally gaining some stability and self respect. The narrative from the likes of Sky Sports. Match Of The Day, et al has changed. Qualifying for Europe would only improve our relevance to the outside world. It would also improve the narrative. 

To watch the hyperbole on Sky Sports surrounding Spurs' supposed death spiral is frightening. It's been ongoing for several weeks and there's a glee and a morbid obsession to it that I have never seen before. It's sickening to watch. We came very close to having that hyperbole applied to us; to now being so close to Europe is huge for the club. 

For the club, European qualification also means continued momentum. We've had a good 13 months both on and off the pitch. Building revenue streams, improving the club's UEFA co-efficient, developing reputation and status, developing the brand. It all adds to the club moving towards being a healthy one.

For the owners this all means that the investment has been worth it so far, even if it is early days. It means that their strategic planning, and their approach to running the club is working. European qualification most importantly means that their interest is maintained. Long term, The Friedkin Group could be good for Everton, and the longer that they see returns on their investment, the longer they will stay with us. 

In the short term, regarding the owners' interest, qualification for Europe may mean a slight increase in this summer's transfer budget. It may make the difference in one extra quality player being in the squad come August. That one extra player may be the difference in improving points totals, the goals scored column and games won. It's the idea of small positive incremental changes having a positive ripple effect. The same can be said of the extra gate receipts from a European run. It might only be eight or ten games, but an extra £10m is positive.

But most of all, perhaps, European qualification, regardless if we feel the club is ready or not, makes for happy fans. Everton fans deserve European football. We genuinely need European football. It can be a hard slog being an Evertonian and we need the club to reciprocate the love and support we give it. It can't all be heartache, near misses and 'Everton that'. If we go into the summer break with European football on the horizon, it would be brilliant. And if it can stop me whinging and sermonising in my articles then all the better!