Regression to the Mean
Everton are a stable mid-table team now with pretensions at Europe that might yet prove elusive this season. The question then concerns how the ownership want to proceed this summer
Some say it's the hope that kills you. More often than not it's misplaced optimism hitting reality. We have regressed to the mean.
At the start of the season, I predicted a 10th-place finish, higher if we got ourselves a decent striker. We didn't, so midtable it is. A midtable squad managed by one of the best at getting the best out of half-decent players.
No concerns about a relegation battle, I've never been convinced we would qualify for Europe. I'm not sure we're good enough. I hope I'm proved wrong.
I'm baffled by David Moyes' reluctance to play most of his expensive purchases, curious of his inability to notice players getting visibly tired and less effective. Concerned at his reluctance to switch things around and try something different.
I'd agree that we've made great progress since he took over. Never underestimate the task of replacing nine players in one sumner and making a coherent-ish team from it.
This summer's task is to keep the new stadium, new Everton momentum flowing. We need good recruitment; not just the solid stuff like re-signing Michael Keane, but the men that can make a difference in central midfield, wing back snd striker. Pace, strength and character.
If I was the owner, I'd pat Moyes on the back for a solid, stable job well done. Then I'd ask him why he doesn't trust the players I've forked out for, and whether he will trust the players I'll fork out for this summer.
The question for the owner is, do we buy more players the manager will trust, or do we find a manager who trusts the players we have and the ones we'll buy?
Big decisions for the owner this summer. I'd be disappointed if they weren't at least pondering Andoni Iraola or Oliver Glasner to take things further. Unless of course, they're happy for a few more years of 'stability'.
Reader Responses
Selected thoughts from readers27/04/2026 14:36:54
A very well crafted and nuanced article.
I fear more of the same. I hope that I am incorrect.
Edfie Howe is the other name which may well come into the frame.
27/04/2026 15:10:53
Calling for Moyes’ head is premature, having said that I too am frustrated by his stubbornness.
The refusal to play younger players and more or less freeze them out isn’t fair and also it’s detrimental to the squad and our aspirations as a club, Röhl in particular after an excellent performance at Villa has been ignored along with Armstrong. Dibling seems like his having a tough time with Moyes too, seems these youngsters are poorly managed, even George cuts a solemn figure when you look at him. Something needs to change with that as it doesn’t fall in line with what we’re trying to achieve long term. Only Moyes can answer these questions.
Also Moyes doesn’t seem to prioritise any of the domestic cups as we saw back in September against Wolves, the afterburn of that appalling game has lasted all season and Moyes has barely done enough to put out any remaining embers that still may linger from that defeat.
However he has delivered stability and steadied a ship that was sinking quite rapidly and I’m still totally behind Moyes as I think he’s a top manager and to hear any sort of talk about Europe is quite frankly remarkable in and of itself, I’m interested to see what TFG have planned moving forward and what their blueprint (ownership model) is because as of today I don’t know, they never made any moves in January which was an alarm bell to me which indicated a lack of leadership and commitment. An important and intriguing few months ahead for us on many levels.
27/04/2026 15:25:52
Neil, I hope they steer clear of Howe. His smash bang wallop football tires and injures players. I think he's getting found out where he is.
27/04/2026 16:21:22
It would be interesting to know who had the final decision on last summer’s transfers as only Grealish & KDH have had regular game time ( Barry also - but why he’s still getting a game is beyond me and many others). Otherwise it’s the same players as last year - unsurprisingly heading for a similar points total.
27/04/2026 17:05:56
Mike, 5, yes, this is a crucial question, which ties in with Paul's second last and third last paragraphs.
My perception is that last summer's signings were made by some kind of committee and that Moyes wasn't too keen on signing Dibling, probably same with Barry too and possibly also Aznou and Rohl, but went along with the signings as he wanted to remain Everton manager.
I reckon Moyes would have wanted players that he believed were ready to go straight in the first team. But the club's approach now is to focus on signings who will improve over two or three years and enhance their value.
I don't think this divergence in approach will work too well.
Yes, it will be an interesting summer.
27/04/2026 17:10:57
I should have said Moyes would want players he considered ready to go straight in the first team
27/04/2026 17:33:49
I think the perception of David Moyes in the wider football world is that he is doing a fantastic job, and he had a similar reputation during his first spell as manager. However, we all know that his seemingly preferred style of play is often tedious and boring and his handling of the younger players in the current squad is a complete mystery.
After the recent years of turmoil the stability he has established this season has been welcome and the inspired signing of Grealish brought some much needed sparkle, and together that's generally been sufficient to keep us all relatively happy. But two local derby defeats and early exits from both Cup competitions undermine any progress in the League.
I think next season will be more difficult, I am not sure whether Grealish, if he returns, would have the same impact, and there are doubts over most of last summers recruits who have either been given little opportunity to shine, or have failed miserably. There seems little point in having a squad of players if the Manager simply refuses or neglects to play them.
I think David Moyes on balance is deserving of another one year extension, but I would like to think the Club would be looking for a more progressive coach thereafter. I also hope that whoever, recruited Barry and Dibling will not be in charge of this summers transfer budget. In explanation Barry, because I believe him not to be a premiership quality player, and Dibling because he seems completely over priced.
27/04/2026 17:35:58
I ideally would like to see Moyes see out his contract and develop the younger players, which he has been slow to do.But in modern Football contracts are negotiated a year ahead.
Moyes apparently was imposed by TFG on the Club Management.The Transfer policy was implemented by a constructed team under Kinnear, with Moyes input.He obviously has been a logger heads with the transfer policy, which is part of the Strategic plan which is backed by TFG, after their experience at Roma.This policy will not change. Obviously the plan was to develop these young players with potientisl.into the First team.
Moyes has been half hearted in playing the younger players and some have looked ok when played.I maintain thatoyrs's system does not particularly suit players developed in a more straight forward playing system
27/04/2026 18:11:29
Good article, Paul. And Mike @6 I think is spot on with our player recruitment team and the modus operandi of buying young to improve and then sell on at a profit. However if these players don't play how can they possibly improve?
When our chief executive bullshitter issued his statement on recruitment structures, world class analytics with industry leading talent identification, etc. the bullshit alarms went off the scale worse than Little Miss Dynamite!
So next season, more of the same. We all know the script with Dour Davie. I would sooner win the Mickey Mouse cup than get 5th 6th place. You can't put 6th place on a bus and show it to a crowd around the city! But mid-table seems to be the zenith of Everton's ambition.
27/04/2026 18:22:26
Without the points deduction we would have come twelfth, in 2024, we came twelfth last season, so even though we are doing better it doesn’t feel much different to me.
There is an obvious difference because relegation hasn’t been mentioned this season, although I think I expected us to do a bit better this season, until the very slow speed of our recruitment this summer.
I agree with Paul, I’d prefer to see the back of David Moyes, but if he his to stay then hopefully things become a lot more aligned in the recruitment room.
27/04/2026 18:44:25
Philip #6, to be fair to Kinnear, he's set the recruitment team up, but it does take time for that to build. The likes of Brighon, Brentford, etc didn't get it working straightaway. It takes time, which is why we need these ew players on the pitch now while the recruitment team scouts the world for the next lot.
27/04/2026 19:26:31
Yes, Paul, everything takes time especially at Everton, so don't hold your breath!
i once witnessed an Everton CEO do something useful once! The company I worked for had tickets for the Captain's Table lounge in the Park End, and occasionally I got the tickets to take customers.
At one game I was early and I overheard one of the girls on the reception on the phone to someone saying they had run out of programmes. 5 minutes later Robert Elstone appeared with a box of programmes. Only at Everton!
The Friedkin Group should implement a similar strategy at the Hill Dicko. Angus could oversee the logistics of the toffee doughnuts with his world class analytics.
28/04/2026 03:26:40
Agree with every word PT.
Jerome Shields (9): 'I ideally would like to see Moyes see out his contract and develop the younger players, which he has been slow to do'.
This will simply not happen Jerome, and I think that you feel this too.
Moyes speaking in 2024: '18-years-old was the young (age) probably a few years ago. But certainly I think it’s moved more towards 21 now for players in the Premier League'.
When Moyes picked Dibling for his first game, it was the first time in 185 games - 185!!!! - that he had picked a teenager to start.
28/04/2026 07:17:23
Moyes has been sticking with players that got us out of relegation sized holes on several occasions. Avoiding relegation is about winning those must win games under pressure. I can't get my head around how the same set of players can't cope with the pressure of must win games for European qualification.
Maybe, it is as Paul puts it so well, optimism meeting reality. We've plodded along in what has been a very poor PL season. No grouping of teams have been inspired and we have ended up with a couple of points separating any number of clubs. Add in an unusual amount of European spots and we suddenly felt we were a lot further along than we actually were. Maybe in reality, the players just aren't there yet.
Perhaps the manner of the last three results have shown the ugly truth of it. There is still a huge mentality issue at the club. It's what got us into the rut of so many relegation battles in the first place.
The new owners, and the new structures within the club can only do so much to improve on this. Ultimately the right mentality has to come from both within the players themselves and the manager who puts them out on the pitch.
With the four games we have left, I'm dubious as to whether or not we will qualify for Europe. I can't see us getting anything out of the City game. Spurs on the last day, if they still have something to play for, could be tough. The mindset of players may not get any better over what is left of the season.
Is Moyes the right man to change the mentality between now and the end of the season; between now and the end of the summer; between now and the end of his contract next May? Right now I'm not sure.
The end of the season will also leave several disgruntled players in it's wake. Players who feel that they may have been made promises last summer that have gone unfulfilled by the manager. Instead of game time, and career progression, they have been frozen out. Is Moyes the right manager to now make them feel valued over the summer; to make them feel it is worth staying at the club; to make them believe they will get game time next season? Again, right now I'm not sure.
The biggest challenge this summer will be David Moyes convincing a squad of players and his employers that he is worth keeping.
28/04/2026 12:26:42
I think it's even money that Moyes won't get another contract or extension of his current one. From a business perspective the questions over his lack of use of new players that cost circa £150m would be a huge red flag as to his recruitment judgement or alternatively his ability to tactically use what he has bought. This is a massive issue that will bite Moyes in his pragmatic backside. You don't spend 150m as first part of a rebuild and don't use them. What, just exactly how do you think the conversation between dear old Angus and Danny boy is going to go. At the very least the will be concerned, at worst they will be tightening the purse string based on his track record. Doesn't matter what Dan's secret objectives are, giving good money to bad only happens once in us companies. Shade of Reggie Perrin.." I didn't get to be who I am by giving my money to fools"
28/04/2026 12:27:13
Kieran, never mind the players - who's going to change Moyes' mentality? His limit is "best of the rest", if all goes well. Moyes will not ever lead Everton to glory.
28/04/2026 12:36:43
Agreed, Christine. I'd be surprised if TFG were even willing to countenance a extra 1 year "option". Surely, they are already succession planning & lining up suitable coaches - as opposed to managers, as clubs seem largely managed by committee nowadays.
28/04/2026 13:55:31
Moyes has not been able to bring Finch Farm with him in the quest for Europe. It was important that he did, because by not doing so he is back to square facing the Summer with a similar to 12th position in the Premiership.£120-150million spend on players, who haven't been developed enough to make the required valuation.
Groundhog day.Moyes may get to see out contract, but a extension I doubt.
28/04/2026 14:32:25
At which point, given that there are so many good managers becoming available as free agents this summer, will TFG push the button to move Moyes on and get someone that they can work with for a five year development project?
Glasner time?
28/04/2026 15:24:01
Being in the mix for the final Euro spot guarantees continued Moyes stubborness until season end. His argument will always be that " not the time to experiment given what remains at stake". And there's the rub. From the perspective of many, it is not experimentation. It is utilising the skill sets available to find improvement. A well managed team should still achieve positive results even when altered. The players coming in are not strangers to their colleagues.
The constant reference in the gossip columns to the recruitment of Soucek, McGinn, Stones et al can not all be " paper talk". It is confirmation of the Moyes mindset. I was astounded by the stat that when Dibling was selected to start it was 185 games since the last Moyes teenager. Astounded but not surprised.
From my perspective, my passion remains but is less fervent.I struggle with the dreadful effects and stresses of relegation battles. I can cope with mid table mediocrity but that is a dreadful admission and I can not wish it upon any other true blue who is desperate for a trophy of some sort and being able to watch a team that will regularly have them out of their seat. Hence my conclusion that, if the proper replacement is identified and lined up first, at season end we can all say well done and thank you to Moyes for delivering us to Hill Dickinson and to another year in the Premier League, and wave him farewell.
Ponder on this. As good as the win v Chelsea was, the success at Villa Park with a team deprived of several of its regulars and replaced by young, hungry, skilful and committed younger players all playing in position, remains the standout. But what was the reward for a number of those players and their performances? Speaks volumes to me.
29/04/2026 06:09:07
PSG v Bayern Munich must be the best game of football I’ve ever seen. Even better than Everton’s 5-0 drubbing of Man Utd in our title winning year.
Superb and sublime front foot attacking football from start to finish. No parking the bus. No dour defensive ‘keep the ball’ football. No desperate hoping to snatch a breakaway goal.
Just glorious, swashbuckling, offensive maverick stuff from two great sides. It was the football we dream of. The football that caught our young imaginations. This is why Pele called it the ‘Beautiful Game’.
Our Davey must have had nightmares watching that free flowing exhibition; the antithesis of his footballing philosophy.
Oh please let there be a young upcoming manager available from the Luis Enrique school of football this Summer.
29/04/2026 11:24:34
Both fan sites are enthusing over this example of what football can be, with that thought comes the real leveller about where we are.
We are not alone though, as last night's game was exceptional, but if any club has aspirations, then what a yard stick that was.
29/04/2026 17:43:49
Why? That the 2 top teams of 1 team leagues can afford to go gung ho?
Remember Leeds under Bielsa? Got torn to shreds using these tactics in the premier league.
Good to know that when Moyes gets fired for being boring, we'll have plenty of experts on here to replace him.
29/04/2026 19:15:15
I don't think TFG will fire Moyes for being boring, Dean. If that was their primary concern then I doubt he would have got the job at all.
29/04/2026 19:26:42
Dean.
We have had decades of despair, so I get why many Evertonians applaud mid table mediocrity to relegation scraps. But that surely can’t be the end game.
Last night’s game reminded me why I fell in love with football. For such a long time, I’ve been bored with Everton and football in general. Many of my friends feel the same way.
I want us to be ambitious again and not accept mid table as the height of our ambition. I honestly believe the many years of decline have stripped us of our, ‘ Nothing but the Best is Good Enough’. mentality. I want that back. I want to enjoy Everton again. I want something in a measure of what I saw last night. I honestly don’t think we will get that with David Moyes.
30/04/2026 02:48:54
Dean, on the other site Tony Abraham posted that Moyes is not good at utilizing / managing a squad. In that whilst he looks for a settled side, once in the team he basically ignores the rest. Furthermore the Premier league is very much a squad game and tactics have to be fluid to adapt to the opposition or circumstance. This is exactly true in my opinion and Moyes biggest failing is two fold, the inability to change formation or tactics in a game and persistance of a keep it tight and nick one. Let's be clear he is playing a percentage game, 60% of the time he will get something out of a game if his team performs. That means some days it works and he gets the plaudits, other days it doesn't and it looks really poor, hence the brick bats.
But 60% gets you mid table and a heck of a lot of frustrated supporters and probable ignored squad players.
60% gets you away from the relegation fight, but leaves you firmly in mid table. That's exactly where we are and I cannot see that as being acceptable for the owners, fans or players. Rohl, Alcaraz, Dibling, Aznou, Harrison and Patterson, are they really no better than who are struggling so badly? Round pegs, square holes only because they are the round holes Moyes has made that he is unwilling to change or adapt. Some of those may never make it under Moyes, but some of them certainly would under a different manager. If you don't believe that look at the difference between the teams Dyche had and Moyes. Pretty much the same team.
If Moyes puts a solid mid table team together that really fails to deliver its because he is singular in his approach and it has never changed. It may have delivered him a good living, but the PL, it's use of squads and ability to adapt tactically with 5 subs, changes to rules etc means we need a different approach.
30/04/2026 17:03:50
Good article Paul.
We invested £100 million in young players last summer and appointed Dean Rastrick as Academy Director to develop talent and create pathways into the first team.
That is the strategy, as that is where the money has gone.
Then you have a manager who resolutely refuses to give the young players game time, regardless of how the first team plays.
In any other business, the next step would be obvious - remove the blockage.
30/04/2026 20:12:09
Excellent read Paul - promulgating the thoughts of many.
Some and I am in this camp, did not want David Moyes back - first time he did a reasonable job for a year or so then settled into the comfy cosy relationship with the Chairman - he should have been banging the drum for greater resources then but chose not to do so as it suited his own purposes. He and the Chairman moved Everton from fallen giant to 'plucky' - unforgivable in my view, but his final sign off then attempt to lure players finished me with any respect for him.
I acknowledge he did a job last year to dig us out of an immediate hole but this season bores all the hallmarks of his previous era for me to alter my view of him and forgive.
If TFG have any idea of how much potential they would unlock with Everton Football Club if they appoint a manager who actively chases a trophy and winning football matches then they will pull the plug. Time will tell - in the intervening its Moyes groundhog day.
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27/04/2026 14:25:56
I don't expect TFG to replace Moyes this summer, but I'll be very disappointed if he's offered a contract extension.